[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 6N20W 5N30W 3N44W EQ52W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 23W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 3N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY
A 1023 MB HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO/E PACIFIC OVER MEXICO
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING
THE GULF AND GIVING THE AREA NWLY WIND FLOW. THIS IS ADVECTING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NEAR TAMPICO ALL THE WAY NE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF. HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E
AND THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH HISPANIOLA. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES
17N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
BASIN. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS
FRONT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PUERTO RICO TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SFC
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUSLY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS
FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. A 75 NM WIDE BAND
OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS
PRODUCING MODERATE NE AND E WINDS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 02Z
SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN
COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING
SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT
COVERING THE W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS. LOW LEVEL NELY WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING PART OF THIS CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE N COAST OF CUBA.
A SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUSLY FRONTAL SYSTEM IS JUST
TO THE E WITHIN 100-12O NM OF THE MAIN FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS WITH
THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 50W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E
ATLC WITH A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N21W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR 31N30W. A COLD FRONT
GENERATED BY THIS SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1022 MB LOW NEAR
32N36W TO 28N43W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA AND WEST
AFRICA.

$$
GR


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