[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 5N16W 3N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN
34W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD AND NOW THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS EASTERN
MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND OTHER U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES AND THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W AND 106W.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LOW CLOUDS HUG THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
TEXAS GULF COAST DURING THE 36 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N70W TO 27N71W
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 17N75W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT NOW IS IN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE CLOUD
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FOUND EASILY ON SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN ONE CLOUD LINE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N62W 16N65W 12N67W....WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 15N72W 13N75W 10N78W...WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
16N77W 14N79W 12N81W 12N84W APPROACHING NICARAGUA...AND FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL-TO-EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N37W TO 29N40W TO
29N44W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N44W TO A 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N56W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 29N56W TO 24N60W 22N65W TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN
AND/OR IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE APPROACHING
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 28N58W 30N56W 33N56W. PRECIPITATION ALSO IS
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N59W 23N64W 20N68W...
AND FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS ALONG 31N30W TO 23N31W HAS BEEN WEAKENING STEADILY DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
31N22W TO 27N22W REACHING 21N23W

$$
MT





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