[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N3W 6N15W 3N25W 2N41W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
18W-36W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR E OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO
AND TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE GULF W
OF 86W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING FROM THE
W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI THEN W TO 25N88W CONTINUING AS
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO A WEAK 1019 MB NEAR 25N94W THEN S INTO
MEXICO NEAR JUST N OF VERACRUZ THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 87W WHILE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE FRONT E OF 87W. THE NE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER SE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY THEN WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW WILL TRACK N TO
NE REMAINING THE THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
69W. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
21N85W.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE
W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 68W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
W ATLC NEAR 32N70W SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR MIAMI. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W ALONG 27N70W TO BEYOND 32N66W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE
FROM 26N70W TO BEYOND 32N62W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO 80W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W TO A BROAD BUT WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR
27N34W CONTINUING TO 22N43W WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE UPPER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG 26W FROM 19N-28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO 22N60W BUT WITH
DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR IN PLACE ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT.

$$
WALLACE





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