[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N19W 2N33W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 28W-33W. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
E OF 21W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO
TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTO THE W GULF W OF 88W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS DUG S OVER THE E GULF COVERING THE SE US
AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N E OF 88W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE W TO A WEAK 1018 MB NEAR 25N94W THEN S
INTO MEXICO NEAR JUST N OF VERACRUZ THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N AND W
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER SE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY THEN WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW WILL TRACK N TO
NE REMAINING THE THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC AGAIN
REIGNS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND 67W.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 70W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W ALONG 29N71W TO BEYOND 32N69W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 25N73W TO BEYOND 32N64W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES
THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W
OF 45W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N29W TO A BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR 28N34W CONTINUING TO 23N44W
WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE UPPER
LOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 25W FROM 21N-29N. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N43W TO 21N65W BUT WITH DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR IN
PLACE ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT.

$$
WALLACE




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