[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA TO 6N15W 3N24W 2N39W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR 4N BETWEEN 21W AND 35W. OTHER PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 37N129W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER
COVERS THE AREA AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 20N AND AS FAR TO THE
EAST AS BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 37N129W CENTER...AND THIS SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS STEERING THE
CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NOW...APPROACHING BERMUDA.
THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS UNDERGOING THE TRANSITION FROM HOWEVER MUCH THIS TROUGH
AFFECTED THAT AREA TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 27N70W TO
ANDROS ISLAND...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO 23N87W
TO 24N89W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N89W TO 27N95W TO
A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER REALLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH TEXAS
COAST NEAR 27N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 23N82W 25N82W 30N89W AND
90W...AND NORTH OF 22N89W 24N93W 19N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BETWEEN 62W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM TOO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OR MORE OF THE AREA. THE CORNER OF THE AREA NORTHWEST
OF JAMAICA IS EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR AND/OR JUST
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH AND ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF
LOW CLOUDS IN AREAS OF SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND FLOW WITHIN 75 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N63W 13N67W 14N71W...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
63W AND 66W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND FROM 15N TO 19N WEST OF
77W AS SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL
AMERICA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL-TO-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 28W AND 38W. THIS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 35N41W TO 29N40W TO 24N56W TO 20N60W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 20W...PASSING OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND CANARY ISLANDS TO AFRICA.

$$
MT



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