[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N2W 5N16W 3N30W 1N39W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 48W-50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW AND BRINGING IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE
GULF. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE REGION OVER THE E US AND
INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WEAKENING FURTHER
ALONG 26N90W TO A 1015 MB LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W
THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 25N98W NW ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N ACROSS
THE N GULF WITH A SMALL AREA THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS
OF 27N87W. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIP FURTHER
SOUTH WHILE THE WEAK LOW REMAINS IN THE W GULF AND DISSIPATES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE GULF COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO HONDURAS ANCHORED JUST S OF CUBA NEAR
21N80W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/
STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US AND NW ATLC N OF THE
REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC
NEAR 32N74W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N W OF
70W. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF
40W. A WEAK BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE E ATLC N
OF 25N E OF 40W WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE AZORES AND A
SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 31N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N-33N
BETWEEN 31W-37W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 33W FROM
16N-21N WITH A STRONGER MORE WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 15N19W TO 25N22W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO 23N65W.

$$
WALLACE




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