[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N2W 7N13W 3N26W 1N39W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-28W AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA S OF 2N W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW AND BRINGING IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE
GULF. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE REGION OVER THE E US AND
INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC THEN
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ALONG 26N85W 28N93W TO A 1014 MB LOW OFF THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR 27N96W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 25N98W NW ALONG THE E
SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE N GULF. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIP
FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE WEAK LOW REMAINS IN THE W GULF OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE GULF COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO HONDURAS ANCHORED JUST S OF CUBA NEAR
21N80W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/
STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US AND NW ATLC N OF THE
REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR
32N74W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 26N W OF 73W. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC W OF 40W. A WEAK BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE
E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 31N23W WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N33W ALONG 27N46W TO 31N57W.
A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW...EXTENDS FROM 22N31W TO 16N33W WITH A STRONGER MORE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
14N19W NNW TO 24N23W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND
CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W BRIDGING THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N67W.

$$
WALLACE




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