[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N2W 4N10W 3N25W EQ40W IS50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS WITH A
WEAKENING CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR EQ50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INCLUDING ALSO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE...MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR 27N85W. THIS TROUGH
ALSO SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT TRAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A WEAK 1019 MB LOW
LOCATED NEAR 27N92W. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO
ANOTHER 1019 MB LOW SITUATED NEAR BUOY 42002. MOSAIC DOPPLER
RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
THE N GULF STATES FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...THE WEAK SFC LOWS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRES FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS IN...AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
DIP FURTHER SOUTH. NELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL ZONE. THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BANKING
UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO...PARTICULARLY N OF TAMPICO.
A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ON THE 15Z MAP ACROSS THE SW PORTION
OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N96W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS
MOST OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE IMPLIED DRY
STABLE AIR MASS. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND N CENTRAL AMERICA. VIS SAT IMAGERY REVEALS SHALLOW
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN
COAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1130Z CONFIRMED THESE WINDS.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN US N OF THE REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1014 MB LOW
LOCATED NEAR 33N74W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 68W-74W. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 40W. A WEAK
BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE E ATLC WITH AN UPPER
LOW JUST S OF THE AZORES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. AT LOW LEVELS...A SFC RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. A WELL DEFINED
SFC TROUGH RUNS FROM 26N23W TO THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH. A WEAKER TROUGH IS FARTHER WEST ALONG 35W FROM
15N-20N GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

$$
GR





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