[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W 1N30W 1N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W...TO 2S50W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND FROM
1N TO 2N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 3N
BETWEEN 35W AND 41W..AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN
44W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N92W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 20N92W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
22N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO MEXICO NEAR
18N97W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE COAST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND ULTIMATELY TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.
A NOT-YET-WELL-DEVELOPED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR 28N101W...AND A TROUGH
ALONG 30N100W 28N101W 23N102W IN MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH...AND IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO
30 NM RADIUS OF 25.5N95W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF 25N97W 26N90W 28N83W. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST STILL IS FOR
THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR 22N96W TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS ABOUT 200 NM NORTH OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS SENDS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT
PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA.
THE SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW APPEARS TO BE RELAXED GIVEN THE
COMPARATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 20N88W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N92W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 9N80W 15N83W...AND
WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF 15N83W 22N85W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N75W 15N67W BEYOND 16N80W
IN EASTERLY SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES OF
31N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N58W TO 25N70W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 60W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 30W. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N33W TO
17N40W TO 13N46W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH REACHES FROM 20N50W
TO 17N54W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO EXTENDS
FROM 30N50W TO 21N51W TOWARD 17N54W. THAT WHOLE AREA SOUTH OF
30N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 58W/60W FROM 14N TO 25N. SURFACE CYCLONIC
FLOW INDICATES A NOT-YET-ANALYZED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 45W/47W
FROM 10N TO 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WITH A RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 27N25W 11N40W.

$$
MT


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