[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W EQ45W 2S50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
34W-36W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
22N96W MOVING N TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SE FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N91W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N97W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF W OF
84W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW AND W OF 90W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO NEAR HOUSTON
TEXAS AT 29N95W.  SURFACE WINDS E OF 90W ARE MAINLY NELY 5-15
KT.  THE NW GULF N OF THE FRONTS ARE ELY 15-25 KT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SWLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT...
THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN LESS
THAN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE N THEN NE TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH CONVECTION IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 23N80W 20N90W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT.  LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN.  SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 82W FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT...CONTINUED
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
82W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
TO BECOME MORE SWLY IN 24 HOURS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N57W AND
EXTENDS SW TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W.  BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A WEAKENING 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 59W FROM
15N-24N.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A
1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N30W PRODUCING ELY
SURFACE FLOW FROM W AFRICA TO 50W BETWEEN 10W-25W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN
20W-60W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N32W.  IN THE
TROPICS...A JET STREAM...WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS SE OF
THE E ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N40W TO TO BEYOND
21N17W OVER W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA





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