[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 43W...TO 2S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM WESTERN
CUBA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1004 MB GALE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE GALE CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST IS FOR THE GALE CENTER TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS ABOUT 200 NM NORTH OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS SENDS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT
PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA.
THE SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS RELAXED BECAUSE OF A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N76W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEST OF 9N80W
15N83W 22N84W...AND EAST OF 76W IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES OF
31N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N57W TO 25N70W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 60W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 30W. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N33W TO
17N40W TO 13N46W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH REACHES FROM 20N50W
TO 17N54W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO EXTENDS
FROM 30N50W TO 21N51W TOWARD 17N54W. THAT WHOLE AREA SOUTH OF
30N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 46W/48W FROM 10N TO 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 27N25W 11N40W.

$$
MT


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