[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150617
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 9N/10N IN COASTAL GUINEA TO 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W TO 1S49W
IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 28N109W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 25N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER NORTHWESTWARD
TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION STRETCH FROM
WESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE ENTIRE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH THE COLD FRONT. GALE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR 16/0600 UTC. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST FOR
THE WESTERN GULF WATERS DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS JUST
NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THE SURFACE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW APPEARS TO BE RELAXED GIVEN THE COMPARATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOW CENTER/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVED NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PART OF A SEPARATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/
FRONTAL PATTERN. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
STRETCH FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE
ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH THE COLD FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF
20N60W 17N70W 13N75W...MOVING WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 57W/58W
FROM 14N TO 22N. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN
53W AND 60W...STILL NOT DIRECTLY REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N77W TO WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BLOWS ACROSS THE TOP OF THE AREA OF
FRONT. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WEST OF 23N73W 29N65W 32N65W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
BEYOND 33N63W. THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH THAT STARTS IN CANADA NORTHEAST OF THE STATE OF
MAINE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 31N53W HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1014 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST EAST
OF THE WATER VAPOR LEVEL TROUGH AND JUST WEST OF THE 22N30W
12N36W TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 50W.

$$
MT


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