[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE GHANA/IVORY COAST BORDER NEAR 5N3W TO 5N11W 6N23W
4N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W...TO 1S50W IN NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 32W...
AND IN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W.
OVERCAST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 8N41W 14N30W BEYOND 16N20W INTO AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 28N109W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 23N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO WESTERN CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF WATERS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 22N
BETWEEN BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. GALE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR 16/0600 UTC. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE WESTERN GULF WATERS
DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS JUST
NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THE SURFACE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW APPEARS TO BE RELAXED GIVEN THE COMPARATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W TO WESTERN CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A 1015 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN BETWEEN
93W AND 95W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS...ALONG 25N55W 20N57W 15N58W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...STILL NOT
DIRECTLY REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES FROM JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO 27N70W TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO WESTERN CUBA. THE FRONT CONTINUES
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/YUCATAN CHANNEL AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 59W AND
60W ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 31N60W EARLIER HAS
DISSIPATED LEAVING ONLY A TROUGH ALONG 32N57W 27N60W. LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND  FLOW NORTH OF 20N EAST
OF 50W.

$$
MT


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