[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 2N40W EQUATOR AT 48W
INTO NE BRAZIL AT 1S50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER BRAZIL FROM
1S-1N BETWEEN 48W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N80W 20N90W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
19N95W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY W OF 90W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE
SURFACE LOW TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W.  SURFACE WINDS
N OF THE FRONT ARE NELY 10-20 KT.  TEMPERATURES N OF THE FRONT
REMAIN WARM AND PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 60-75 F.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SWLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT...
THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE N TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH A WARM
FRONT AND CONVECTION IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN.  SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 76W FROM PANAMA TO CANCUN MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... SWLY TO WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN
AND SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL IN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W AND
EXTENDS SW TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W.  BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES E.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WEAKENING 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
26N78W.  A 1014 MB LOW IS ALSO SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N60W
DRIFTING NE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE.  ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 15N-23N.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  A 1028 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N31W PRODUCING ELY SURFACE FLOW
FROM W AFRICA TO 50W BETWEEN 10W-25W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N45W.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL HIGH
NEAR 30N32W.  IN THE TROPICS...A JET STREAM...WITH CORE WINDS OF
90-110 KT IS SE OF THE E ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
8N40W TO TO BEYOND 15N15W OVER W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA


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