[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AT 50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL ALONG THE EQUATOR
NEAR 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 25W...AND SOUTH
OF 5N BETWEEN 33W AND 44W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N BETWEEN 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS
COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STILL IS IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OF THE U.S.A. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...GOING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
CROSSING MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR EASTERN CUBA. THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THE SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW APPEARS
TO BE RELAXED GIVEN THE COMPARATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AN APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY REACHES
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WEAKENING...AND THEN RETREATING NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES CAUGHT
UP IN A SEPARATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTAL PATTERN. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 82W...FROM 14N TO
17N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W...SOUTH OF 15N EAST OF 65W...SOUTH OF 18N
BETWEEN 78W AND 84W...AND SOUTH OF 18N WEST OF 84W MOVING INTO
HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 56W/58W FROM 17N TO 23N. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...STILL
NOT DIRECTLY REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO FLORIDA ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 27N BETWEEN 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COLD FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STILL IS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE
U.S.A.  A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GOES FROM 31N58W TO 27N57W
TO 21N52W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST EAST OF THE WATER VAPOR LEVEL TROUGH AND JUST
WEST OF THE 22N30W 12N36W TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N46W 26N49W 33N52W.
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 50W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHES PORTUGAL/SPAIN
AND NORTHWESTERN AFRICA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT RUNS
FROM SPAIN TO THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 31N23W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...GOING FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N30W TO 12N36W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N BEYOND 32N
EAST OF 52W.

$$
MT



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