[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AT 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N
BETWEEN 49W AND 51W ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 8N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG
THE ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER ALONG 111W NEAR 31N/32N.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N86W
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA...AND THEN INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE COAST JUST
EAST OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. THIS COLD
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STILL IS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OF THE U.S.A. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA...GOING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
CROSSING MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N
EAST OF 90W...AND SOUTHWEST OF 28N97W 25N93W 23N91W 19N93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR EASTERN CUBA. THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THE SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW APPEARS
TO BE RELAXED GIVEN THE COMPARATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AN APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY REACHES
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WEAKENING...AND THEN RETREATING NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES CAUGHT
UP IN A SEPARATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTAL PATTERN. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
WEST OF 82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND APPROACHING HONDURAS...
FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W...SOUTH OF 18N WEST OF 78W
APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA...AND IN PATCHES OF CLOUDS SOUTH
OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 57W/59W FROM 17N
TO 23N. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 53W AND
60W...STILL NOT DIRECTLY REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N BETWEEN 32N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W. THIS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STILL IS IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE U.S.A. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
GOES FROM 31N58W TO 27N57W TO 21N52W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 28N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 57W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST
EAST OF THE WATER VAPOR LEVEL TROUGH AND JUST WEST OF THE 22N30W
12N36W TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 17N48W 23N46W 29N49W 35N51W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 50W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHES PORTUGAL/SPAIN AND NORTHWESTERN
AFRICA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT RUNS FROM SPAIN TO
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 31N23W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...GOING FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N30W TO 12N36W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N BEYOND 32N EAST OF 52W.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net