[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N23W 4N39W 2N47W EQ51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO S
MEXICO ALONG 28N83W 23N90W 18N94W AT 21Z. METAR AND BUOY OBS SUGGEST
A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE SITUATED IN THE VICINITY OF 27N84W...ANALYZED
1013 MB. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG
SWLY WINDS ALOFT IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. THE ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE SPREAD
OUT OVER FLORIDA AND THE ATLC WATERS WHERE THE UPPER PATTERN IS MORE
DIFFLUENT. LOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND
THE FRONT W OF 90W DUE TO THE TYPICAL NLY FLOW FUNNELING EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AS MODERATE TO
STRONG NLY WINDS ADVECT IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW ALLOWING THE COOLER CONDITIONS TO PENETRATE FARTHER SOUTH.
THEREAFTER...SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE DIPS OVER THE W CARIB WHILE A LARGE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS.
WIDESPREAD ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE IS EMBEDDED IN THESE FEATURES
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOUDINESS OR CONVECTION. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...ELY TRADE WINDS ARE MOSTLY MODERATE...EXCEPT STRONG
IN THE TYPICAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS ARE BEING STEERED BY THE TRADES...
CURRENTLY MOST ORGANIZED BETWEEN 66W-76W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NW CORNER TOMORROW SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
N/NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA NAMELY
N OF 28N W OF 75W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND
A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES...WHICH ARE PART OF A DEVELOPING WINTER
STORM FOR THE NORTHEAST STATES LATER TONIGHT AND MON. A SLOWLY
FILLING LOW PRES SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NWD DRIFT CENTERED NEAR
29N60W. THE MIN PRES WAS LOWERED TO 1010 MB BASED ON EARLIER SHIP
REPORTS. A SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SE
OF THE CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF 27.5N58W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
OPEN INTO A TROUGH LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AND BECOME ABSORBED BY
THE MUCH LARGER AFOREMENTIONED WINTER STORM. DENSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE N OF 22N BETWEEN 47W-52W IN AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENT
ZONE.

THE E ATLC REMAINS BENEATH THE TAIL END OF AN AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N38W. THIS FEATURE
IS ENHANCING SW TO WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TROPICAL BELT WHICH ARE
TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS S OF 17N E OF 35W. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS EMBEDDED RIPPLES OR BANDED FEATURES TO THE CLOUD PATTERN
SUGGESTIVE OF TURBULENCE.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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