[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N20W 4N30W 2N40W ALONG THE
EQUATOR W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF N OF 24N WITH
A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS IN TRANSITION EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE TO A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW JUST OFF THE NW FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 29N84W CONTINUING TO A SECOND 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N88W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N92W WEAKENING INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N88W ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR
29N83W. THE LOWS ARE MOVING NE FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO COLD WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN
THE W ATLC. JETSTREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED FROM 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE N GULF FROM JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO TO FORT MYERS
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE GULF ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA
BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MODERATE/STRONG
NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN ON MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1011 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N80W. THIS FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS
NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US/GULF OF MEXICO AND IS MOVING
INTO THE NW ATLC. THIS FRONT IS TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD FRONT AS
THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE NE OFF THE E US COAST. HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ALONG 70W BEYOND
32N PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N79W TO 30N76W.
A 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N60W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 23N61W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE E FROM
26N-29W BETWEEN 57W-59W. THIS SURFACE LOW WAS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N55W
SSE TO 18N47W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 29N70W AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
IS BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR W
ATLC. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT N OF THE REGION. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N44W NNW TO BEYOND
32N50W AND IS PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N FROM 30W-52W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N
OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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