[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N19W 1N40W 2S50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N84W 22N94W 18N96W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 90W.  5-10 KT SWLY SURFACE FLOW
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS E OF THE FRONT.  5-10 KT NLY FLOW IS
N OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING VERY LITTLE PUSH TO THE SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT.  A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S
GULF S OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE...AND OVER HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA.  MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 65W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT...A SURFACE TROUGH TO PROLONG
THE SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N57W.  A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO.  A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N59W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TO 20N59W.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 18N59W 10N59W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THIS TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-65W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N59W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE LOW
CENTER PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-30N
BETWEEN 47W-54W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA




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