[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 2N35W 2S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
APALACHICOLA THROUGH 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N96W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60-90 NM
OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST NORTH
OF CUBA. LIGHT SWLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WITH LIGHT N TO NE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS W OF THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WSWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO AND IS MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY FRONT IN
ADDITION TO PROVIDING VERY LITTLE SUPPORT TO THE FRONT ITSELF.
A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF S OF 26N/27N
AND WAS CAPPED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WITH SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS OF 60-75 KT NOTED. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF N OF
WIND MAX. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWER.ACTIVITY IN THE INCREASE
AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NE GULF ON SUN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS WAS
NOTED OVER THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W AND EXTENDING EASTWARD
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CONFLUENT WSWLY
FLOW IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AND WAS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH WAS MOST PRONOUNCED
EAST OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND PROLONG THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N59W. THE LOW
WAS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM 32N58W S TOWARD
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 19N62W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS E OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58/59W FROM 10N TO 18N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS TROUGH. FURTHER EAST 1031 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N33W AND DOMINATES THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ AND E OF 50W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 62W
WITH AXIS ALONG 68W/69W. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOTED ABOVE NEAR 27N59W
IS STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGS SWD TO 20N OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
E OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 46W-54W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE STACKED UPPER/SURFACE LOW. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 30W-50W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 30W
WITH A TROPICAL WIND MAX NOTED ALONG 15N WHICH WAS CAPPING AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

$$
COBB




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