[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM COASTAL IVORY COAST TO 4N10W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 41W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL 2S50W NEAR THE ILHA
DE MARAJO. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN
20W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W...FROM 1N
TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 31W AND 32W...
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N47W...4N50W...AND 2N51W
IN COASTAL BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM BRAZIL TO
FRENCH GUIANA FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 32W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT IS
BEING STRETCHED ALONG ITS NORTHERN PART...OVER THE EASTERN/
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE PART OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS BEING SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN PART THAT IS OVER LAND.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA WITH A HINT OF CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING. THE COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N
TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS MARKING THE COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BE
FOLLOWED BY A COMPARATIVELY MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 12N TO 19N JUST EAST OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ON THE
MAP BETWEEN 55W AND 60W SINCE 09/1800 UTC. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH THIS TROUGH MAY REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IF AND WHEN THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
27N58W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...ACROSS THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...INTO VENEZUELA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
27N58W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS WRAPPED AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N56W 22N60W 21N68W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W...AND
CURVING AROUND THE CENTER ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CENTER
FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N24W
TO 26N27W...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE AND NEARBY CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

$$
MT




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