[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N12W 2N27W 2N38W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-35W AND N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO 4N BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO 4N BETWEEN
32W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N
BETWEEN 11W-28W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF OF LINE FROM 5N45W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION S INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY EASTWARD ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS SE
LOUISIANA E OF NEW ORLEANS ALONG 26N93W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM
OF A LINE FROM 24N93W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR W OF THE FRONT FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA IN LOUISIANA THROUGH TO JUST N OF TAMPICO
MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH IS BEGINNING TO BUILD W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1017 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT ARE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A REMNANT AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW ALONG 16N71W ACROSS
JAMAICA TOP THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 20N85W. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW
REMAINS JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 16N FROM 61W-65W. OTHERWISE THE AREA
REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N75W COVERING THE AREA W OF
67W. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N58W
COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 50W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N53W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 26N58W TO 20N62W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO THE
E OF THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 46W-60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 19N56W TO 13N57W.
MODERATE/STRONG UPPER WESTERLY FLOW IS SHEARING ANY CONVECTION
THAT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE
LOW/SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE





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