[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 2N31W 2N41W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 13W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA S INTO THE W GULF
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ENTERING THE GULF THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO WITH HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE
FROM 25N95W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SKIES ARE CLEARING JUST AS RAPIDLY W OF THE
FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA COASTS. AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE E GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E CUBA JUST E OF
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
RETREAT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS STRONG FRONT FROM THE W ATLC TO
THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS COVER
THE N CARIBBEAN E OF 80W USHERING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS JUST W
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
S OF 16N FROM 60W-65W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS RATHER
TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM E CUBA
JUST E OF FLORIDA TO ALONG THE E US COAST COVERING THE AREA W OF
68W. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N57W
COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 50W-68W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 26N58W S TO 20N59W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 22N BETWEEN 46W-59W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 58W FROM 13N-18N. MODERATE/STRONG UPPER
WESTERLY FLOW IS SHEARING ANY CONVECTION THAT COULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE




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