[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N3W 5N14W 3N33W 2N43W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC REMAINING OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
INLAND OVER THE SE US. A STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS BRINGING THE NEXT
FRONT INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN
THESE UPPER TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE
N GULF COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED FROM THE W ATLC IS NOW TO THE E
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LIGHT/MODERATE S TO SE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE GULF USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC NEAR 20N62W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO S OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W. AN AREA OF BROKEN/
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 16N E OF 65W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG
THE E COAST OF THE US TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER THE US. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SW ATLC S OF
24N W OF 65W WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N56W COVERING THE AREA N OF 19N BETWEEN 50W-65W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W SW ALONG 24N57W TO 19N64W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF
THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 24N. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 18N57W TO
10N59W GIVING THE AREA BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 16N E OF 55W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE REGION
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE



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