[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9E 1N3W 4N20W 2N35W EQ48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 33W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY STRONG MID AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH E OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. AND NRN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT WHICH HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND
WITHIN 45 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT AND ITS UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH FRI REACHING FROM N FLORIDA TO S
MEXICO. THEREAFTER...IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER
ENERGY PULLS NWD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...REMAINS TRANQUIL ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE AND BENEATH A MODEST MID-UPPER RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WIDESPREAD DRY
AIR WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOUDS. TRADE
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE REGION WIDE TODAY...EXCEPT 20-25 KT
NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AS NOTED IN AN 11Z QSCAT PASS. THE
OVERALL WEAKENED FLOW IS DUE TO A PAIR OF SFC TROUGHS LOCATED TO
THE N AND E OF THE AREA. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING STEERED WWD ACROSS THE REGION...THICKEST IN THE SE CORNER
NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND S OF 16N W OF 81W AS THE FLOW
CONVERGES ALONG THE COSTA RICA/HONDURAS COASTS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO
MEANDER OR DRIFT WWD. VISIBLE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST A NEWLY FORMED SFC LOW...ANALYZED 1012 MB NEAR 26N57W.
IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO THE E OF THE SFC LOW FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 51W-55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 26N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A WEAK
SFC TROUGH IS SITUATED TO THE S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG
58W FROM 13N-18N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 240 NM E
OF THE AXIS SHEARED BY MID AND UPPER WLYS.

WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 60W CONTROLLED
BY STRONG SFC RIDGING AND ABUNDANT STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE E ATLC
IS ALSO TRANQUIL ON THE S SIDE OF A STRONG AZORES HIGH AND
MID-UPPER ZONAL FLOW. A BROKEN SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIES OVER THE TROPICAL PORTION S OF 14N BETWEEN
23W-52W IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA.

$$
CANGIALOSI/WALTON




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