[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N3W 3N16W 4N42W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-45W
AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC REMAINING OVER
THE NE GULF AS THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NW GULF BACKING NW AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SE NEAR
NEW ORLEANS ALONG 27N95W TO 22N96W. A STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS NOW MOVING OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BRINGING THE NEXT MAJOR FRONT FOR THE GULF LATER
TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE PRECEDES THIS NEXT FRONT EXTENDING OVER
THE W GULF FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE TEXAS COAST. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF
AND INTO THE SW ATLC. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC
REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
FLORIDA ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC NEAR 20N62W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO S HAITI NEAR 18N73W. AN AREA OF BROKEN/
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 16N E OF 65W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS RATHER
TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG
THE E COAST OF THE US TO S FLORIDA WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND OVER THE US AND OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SW
ATLC S OF 25N W OF 66W WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 26N56W COVERING THE AREA N OF 19N BETWEEN 50W-65W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N52W SW TO 20N57W AND A SOUTHERN
EXTENSION FROM 18N58W TO 10N59W GIVING THE AREA BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 16N E OF 56W ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
47W-58W. WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
E OF 50W. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE
TROUGHS.

$$
WALLACE




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