[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N1W 1N10W 3N20W 3N45W EQ50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 12W-25W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WRN
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N87W 26N95W 20N95W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED RAIN IS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT.  SWLY SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
THE NRN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING WLY FLOW.
A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL FROM
24N-27W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT THIS STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND A NEW COLD FRONT
TO BE IN PLACE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE...AND OVER HISPANIOLA...AND E
CUBA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SWLY FLOW OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN.  WLY FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20W...W OF 80W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT...A SURFACE
TROUGH TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N55W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N50W 20N58W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 51W-55W.  ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 16N58W
10N58W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF CLOUD FREE AIR LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH SAHARAN DUST...AS NOTED IN THE CIMSS SAL
PRODUCT...MOVING W THRU THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO ABOUT 28W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF
70W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-70W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N60W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 51W-55W.
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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