[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N22W 2N33W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W TO 2S45W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 25W-42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
2.5N FROM 16W-24W AND WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
11W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N E OF 7W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE GULF
AND INTO THE W ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE
TUE INTO WED MORNING. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE GULF TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE US AND
THE GULF RESULTING IN MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. THIS IS BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE NW GULF WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE FAR E
GULF AND PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE STRONG BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER HAITI IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
MOVED OFF THE COAST AND ARE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 72W-80W.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N THE AREA REMAINS RATHER DRY
TONIGHT WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS
DOTTING THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
68W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM
55W-68W AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 66W FROM 20N-27N. THIS
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 54W-62W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N48W TO 22N45W
GENERATING A SECOND AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 40W-48W.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 35N54W WITH A WEAKNESSES IN THE REGION OF
THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE




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