[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N3W 4N10W 3N30W EQ40W 2S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 2W-5W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 16W-20W...FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 22W-30W...AND FROM
1N-3N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N875W PRODUCING 10-20 KT SELY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WHERE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE
EXTREME NW GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE...AND OVER HISPANIOLA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N35W
22N50W 20N64W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH E OF 50W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF
70W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
45W-70W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
20W-45W.   EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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