[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071818
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
5N3W 3N16W 3N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 39W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS EAST OF 20W...WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 34W
AND 39W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN
31W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM BRAZIL TO FRENCH
GUIANA/SURINAME/GUYANA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W...AND FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ANOTHER BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 107W/108W
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE
U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A.
AND MEXICO BETWEEN 93W/94W AND 120W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM MAY OR MAY NOT AFFECT THE GULF OF MEXICO
AREA DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ALSO. THE SURFACE FLOW IS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH GOING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS IS QUITE
EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE AREA. A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS/SURFACE
CONFLUENT FLOW AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N82W 25N87W 27N89W 29N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IMPARTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE AREA WEST
OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 19N...
GOING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...CROSSING NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND CURVING
EASTWARD. THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N64W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
PRECIPITATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET...SHOWERS ALWAYS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC WAS AT LEAST
0.60 INCHES AND THE AMOUNT FOR ST.THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WAS AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES. THE SOUTHERN PART OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS IN THE AREA OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N64W. EVEN SOME BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
69W AND 73W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N TO 18N/19N BETWEEN
65W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
FORMING NEAR 29N73W IN THE MIDDLE OF LOTS OF HIGH PRESSURE.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES A RIDGE FROM
A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N41W TO A 1033 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N57W...PASSING JUST EAST OF BERMUDA
TO 29N78W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W
FROM 32N TO THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 26N TO 32N
BETWEEN 60W AND 66W...AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A 50W TROUGH COVERS
THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST FROM 20N TO
32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

$$
MT




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