[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N17W 3N30W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 39W TO 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 26W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 15W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE NE GULF WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE ENTIRE S GULF. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO AND WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE GULF TUE INTO WED. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SE TO E WINDS. THIS IS BANKING
SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE OVER LOUISIANA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. LOW SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BANKING CLOUDS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 11N W OF 81W.
SIMILARLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE BANKING CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
OF HISPANIOLA GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE N COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
RATHER DRY THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
DOTTING THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
72W WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM
60W-72W. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N67W WITH THE 1025 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N72W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
64W-70W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 24N W OF 56W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N50W TO
22N55W WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N30W TO 20N30W AND A UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE THESE
UPPER TROUGHS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE GENERATING OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 38W-52W
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKENING REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
29N34W THROUGH A WEAK 1020 MB LOW NEAR 23N43W TO 19N61W AND NO
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE AREA WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE REGION OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES.

$$
WALLACE





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