[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N3W 2N16W 2N33W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 46W TO 1S52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 17W-35W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 35W-43W AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N E OF 17W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE GULF
AND INTO THE W ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE GULF LATE TODAY INTO WED MORNING. HOWEVER...BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF RESULTING IN MODERATE/
STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. THIS IS
BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
OVER THE NW GULF COAST FROM TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER THROUGH
LOUISIANA. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE FAR E GULF AND
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE STRONG BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN...THE AREA
REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
70W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM
55W-70W. A SMALL 1018 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N67W
AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO 27N68W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
55W-59W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 30N47W TO 22N45W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 30N42W TO 21N47W AND IS GENERATING A SECOND AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN
39W-47W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 35N58W WITH A WEAKNESSES IN THE
REGION OF THE ABOVE SURFACE FEATURES.

$$
WALLACE



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