[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N82W
PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY TO SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE U.S. GULF COASTLINE RANGE FROM
THE MID 50'S TO THE MID 60'S AND CONTINUE TO WARM.  CLUSTERS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN HOWEVER
OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
86W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALOFT OVER THE SRN GULF S OF 25N.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N AND
E OF 95W.  EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N67W.  A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N42W 25N50W 21N60W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SW TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W.
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF FRONTS WITH NELY
WINDS 15-25 KT.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 27N40W TO 20N40W.  A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N38W.  A PLUME OF
BROKEN JET CIRRUS CLOUDS IS E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 13N-32N
BETWEEN 25W-33W.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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