[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N42W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 20W-36W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST
OF SW AFRICA E OF 4W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH ALONG THE W COAST OF
MEXICO JUST NW OF ACAPULCO ENTERING THE GULF NEAR TUXPAN TO OVER
THE SE US NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. THIS IS BRINGING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUT STILL NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT IN THE GULF. THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL
E OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXTENDING INTO THE THE W ATLC AND
CARIBBEAN FROM A 1035 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RETURN FLOW OVER THE
W/CENTRAL GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE FAR E GULF E OF 87W. THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE TO THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-84W. PATCHES OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CREATING A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR
16N86W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL. STRONG NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF THE FRONT
MANLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 44W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA THROUGH 32N45W ALONG
26N50W SLOWING ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO 20N62W WHERE IT BECOMES
NEAR STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH PUERTO RICO/MONA
PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF
24N. A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
24N75W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W
OF THE FRONT TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND INLAND OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A
WEAKENING JETSTREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED FROM 80 TO 95 KT
EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W ALONG 29N60W TO
31N50W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E US COVERS THE
W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
INTO THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N39W EXTENDING N BEYOND 32N WITH
A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 20N38W TO 27N41W. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E
EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N25W. THIS
CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC
MAINLY BETWEEN 25W-32W WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF
37W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N23W.

$$
WALLACE



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