[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N30W 3N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
18W-22W...AND BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEPARTING 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
34N81W PRODUCING 15 TO LOCALLY KT ELY TO SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
U.S. GULF COAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...A MARKED
DEPARTURE FROM THE RECENT COLD SPELL. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE
AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF S OF 25N. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
LOUISIANA SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER HONDURAS AND JUST TO THE EAST OF BELIZE.
FURTHER EAST...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED OVER
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 19N AND
EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SPRAWLING 1034 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
35N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N42W 24N50W 21N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. A VAST AREA OF
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT
WITH NE SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N40W TO 20N38W...HOWEVER A 2030 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW IS
NOW EVIDENT ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 24N40W. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
INCLUDED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 34N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE CAROLINAS TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA IS BEGINNING TO
SPREAD OVER THE FAR WEST ATLANTIC AND IS ON THE HEELS OF A
TROUGH IS ALONG 32N65W THROUGH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
26N69W TO A BASE NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FURTHER EAST...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 42W-65W.
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC
WITH CENTERS NEAR 25N36W AND 22N38W. A PLUME OF BROKEN JET
CIRRUS CLOUDS IS E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 12N THROUGH 32N BETWEEN
25W-33W. THE FLOW IN THIS REGION WAS VERY DIFLUENT WITH SOME OF
THE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N17W.

$$
COBB



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