[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N11W 3N21W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-8W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N
BETWEEN 9W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 94W FROM OVER MEXICO/TEXAS AND THE W
GULF W OF 87W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF IN THE FORM OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
THE E GULF IS COVERED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO
MOVE OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 86W
WHILE SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
GULF W OF 86W WITH OVER LOW CLOUDS BANKING ALONG THE E
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST BY THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ON MON.

CARIBBEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FAR E TIP
OF CUBA JUST W OF JAMAICA TO INLAND OVER E/CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR
15N85W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W
OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N58W TO
25N66W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FAR E TIP CUBA.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
200 NM W OF THE FRONT AND BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 330 NM W OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO 80W. A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
UPPER LOWS. THE ONLY UPPER LOW IN THE REGION IS LOCATED NEAR
26N30W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH DOES EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION THROUGH 32N31W TO 28N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE HIGHS N OF THE
REGION AND A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE





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