[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

6N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W...TO 2S30W...THEN
INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL ALONG 3S/4S TO 40W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2S TO 7N EAST OF 31W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA CUTS ACROSS THE CLOUD
TOPS OF THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 36W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N119W IS HELPING TO SPREAD CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM MAY END UP INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS MEXICO
INTO TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOSTLY BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW CLOUDS
ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WEST OF 90W.

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 29N60W 22N70W...PASSING OVER
THE TURKS ISLANDS AND THE CAICOS ISLANDS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 76W FROM
19N TO 20N...AND CONTINUES TO 19N80W 17N83W AND HONDURAS NEAR
14N86W. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITHIN 200 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 270 NM WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE PART OF THE FRONT THAT IS IN HONDURAS.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N56W 27N65W 21N77W AT THE CUBA COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. EASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW IS PUSHING LOW CLOUDS
FROM EAST TO WEST EAST OF 76W. THE FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC SOUTH
OF 15N WEST OF 75W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PATCHES OF CLOUDS
EAST OF 74W...MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF A SURFACE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE AREA
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 27N31W TO
12N50W TO 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
22N TO 34N BETWEEN 25W AND 38W.


$$
MT

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