[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 2N13W 2N22W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR 8N BETWEEN 3W-17W AND FROM THE
EQUATOR 4N BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO INTO TEXAS CLIPPING THE FAR W
GULF ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS COVERED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W
ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE GULF WITH
SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG
25N92W TO OVER LOUISIANA BEING DIRECTED BY THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONT ENTERING THE GULF
ON MON.

CARIBBEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR
20N76W SE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS
NEAR 15N85W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS OVER CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY AN UPPER
HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 66W. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N61W TO
23N71W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS OVER
THE W ATLC WITHIN 350 NM W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1029
MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W TROPICAL
ATLC WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS. THE ONLY UPPER LOW IN THE
REGION IS LOCATED NEAR 26N33W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH DOES
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N33W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH SURFACE HIGHS N OF THE
REGION AND A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE




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