[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N5W 4N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 26W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 3W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 2.5N FROM 31W-33W AND 75 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 1N-4N.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC COVERING
THE ENTIRE GULF ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS IN
THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO
150 KT IS OVER THE SE GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N90W
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR NAPLES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVERING THE SE GULF S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO
23N92W. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S MEXICO AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF TAMPICO W OF 94W. HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT
THEN SHIFT NE TO OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N78W
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR
16N86W. CLUSTERS OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT INCLUDING JAMAICA WITH OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
NW OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER E CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE E
CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON FRI.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N65W ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 21N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT AND OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. A STRONG
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 160 KT IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE
FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA TO
NORTH CAROLINA. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N50W. A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 29W-35W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N33W TO 28N42W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 25N23W WITH NO
SURFACE REFLECTION. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 15N
E OF 65W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND ANCHORED N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE





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