[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 27W TO 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF. A 95-100
KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET HAVE MOVED
E INTO THE ATLC. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE
AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES N OF AROUND
27N AND SCATTERED/BROKEN  COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF
27N. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW CLOUDS OVER S MEXICO FROM
VERA CRUZ TO TAMPICO. SURFACE HIGH PRES...1028 MB...OVER SE
ALABAMA WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH SW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS NEAR
16N84W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE FRONT. ALSO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N E OF THE FRONT
TO 75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N65W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT AND
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS 120-140 KT OVER THE W ATLC FROM S FLORIDA TO 28N75W WHERE
WINDS INCREASE TO 150-175W THE JET CONTINUES NE TO BEYOND
32N70W. A SHARPENING MID/UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N54W SW TO
PUERTO RICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE ATLC BETWEEN 40W-60W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS FROM 32N30W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N30W CONTINUING
SW TO 17N50W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS SE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N29W TO 27N42W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH.

$$
DGS



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net