[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N29W 1N41W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 6W-15W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC COVERING
THE GULF N OF 20N ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT HAS
EXITED THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT
IS OVER THE E GULF WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE FROM 21N93W ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR TAMPA. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER
MOST OF THE GULF WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE
S GULF S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S MEXICO AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF
WITH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 27N94W. A WEAK FRONT WILL SKIRT THE N
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF YESTERDAY NOW EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO INLAND OVER BELIZE NEAR 16N89W
THEN GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM E TIP OF CUBA TO CENTRAL
HONDURAS TO THE FRONT WITH OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR
STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON FRI.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N61W ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE FRONT AND OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 175 NM W OF THE
FRONT. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 170 KT IS OVER THE
W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE SE COASTAL STATES.
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N52W. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS
IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-37W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W TO
29N44W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 24N24W WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF
70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT. A 1030 BM HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 34N42W AND A 1028 MB HIGH
IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE




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