[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W 2N50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS 5N-6N BETWEEN 16W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  10-20 KT NLY SURFACE FLOW
DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  20-25 KT WINDS ARE OVER
THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO S OF 21N.  COLD AIR ADVECTION IS PUSHING DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S
GULF FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE
E TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 24 HOURS.  EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E GULF E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
BELIZE ALONG 23N80W 17N89W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  25 KT NLY SURFACE WINDS AND BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE MODERATE
TRADES.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W...AND THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE
AXIS ALONG 70W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO N HONDURAS IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING
SW TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 32N70W 23N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 69W-72W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE N OF 29N WITHIN 150 NM E OF FRONT AND ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN AT GALE STRENGTH UNTIL 0600 UTC TONIGHT.  A 1027 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N46W.  A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO 27N47W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.   A 1027 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N22W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS N OF 20N FROM 45W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N23W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA.  EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM
32N63W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N78W WITH CONVECTION IN 24 HOURS.  THE
OTHER FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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