[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N7W 2N20W 1N35W 2N45W 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS 17W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 95-115
KT JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N97W TO 28N84W
WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 130-140 KT THE JET CONTINUES NE ACROSS N
FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE
OF THE JET AXIS. TRANSVERSE BANDING IS NOTED ON THE CIRRUS
INDICATING POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS N OF THE JET AXIS.
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT AT 27/1500 UTC IS MOVING SE OF THE
AREA FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE TSTMS ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED...HOWEVER SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT.
SKIES ARE CLEAR N OF 27N W OF 90W...OTHERWISE BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALSO REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN. COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
THE W TIP 0F CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN USHERING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM
TOBAGO TO 16N70W TO 19N82W.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE ATLC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT 27/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM
32N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH AXIS FROM 32N53W SW TO HISPANIOLA. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N38W TO 25N45W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 32N39W TO 30N44W THEN DISSIPATING TO 27N53W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF
COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF DISSIPATING FRONT. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SEPARATES THE UPPER TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 25N23W. A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED
NEAR 32N27W.

$$
DGS



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