[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W TO 3S45W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N83W 26N90W
20N96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO 120 NM S OF THE FRONT...N OF 26N.  NLY GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT...WHILE SWLY 5-15 KT WINDS ARE S
OF THE FRONT.  A 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD PRESENTLY EXISTS
BETWEEN KEY WEST FLORIDA AND PENSACOLA FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO AND IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  SWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE GULF
IN 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE
AREA MOSTLY E OF 80W.  MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.   EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO 26N60W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF FRONT.   A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N25W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N52W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM 40W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N26W.  THE WRN EXTENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA S
OF 17N AND E OF 30W.  A WEAK JETSTREAM IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC FROM 10N30W
TO BEYOND 20N10W OVER W AFRICA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM NEAR 30N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA


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