[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N23W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO 2S44W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS TRACKING FAIRLY QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE
REGION ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S MEXICO ALONG
31N86W 26N92W 21N97W. DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS LINES OF SCATTERED
TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SFC PRESSURES ARE
LOWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY INFERRING A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
21N96W...SEEN AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON VIS IMAGES. ELSEWHERE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IS NOTED IN DEEP
LAYER W TO SWLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH UNSEASONABLE VALUES
OF THE MID-UPPER 80'S F IN S FLA. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN ADVECTED BY NLY WINDS TO GALE
FORCE. DESPITE THE SHORT FETCH...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE BUILDING
SEAS TO 10 FT AT BUOY 42020 JUST OFF THE S TEXAS COAST. THE
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION BY TOMORROW
MORNING ALLOWING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO PENETRATE
FURTHER SE. WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW GALE FORCE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE NRN WATERS.

CARIBBEAN...
ZONAL MID TO UPPER FLOW AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. THIS SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT
IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOST ORGANIZED E OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE CLOUD PATCHES STEERED FAIRLY QUICKLY WWD
BY THE TRADES. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT NEAR
THE SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER COLOMBIA ...WHICH IS A LITTLE MORE
APPARENT TODAY ON VIS IMAGES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE CARIB DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL AND WASH OUT THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC...
MODEST DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS STILL HOLDING GROUND OVER THE W
ATLC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N69W. THE SFC RIDGE
IS SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTED BY THE TAIL END OF A DYING STATIONARY
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 36N50W...AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 78W FROM 26N-31N.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL NEAR THESE SUBTLE FEATURES OR
ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLC. THE WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO PRONOUNCED TROUGHING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CORNER LATER TODAY.

THE SFC PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1028 MB S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N26W. TYPICAL
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING WWD...EXCEPT FROM THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EWD WHERE SAHARAN AIR HAS DRIED OUT THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS. ALOFT...A PAIR UPPER CUT OFF LOWS ARE SPINNING
NEAR 27N25W AND A MORE DEFINED ONE OVER MOROCCO. A SHORTWAVE
LIES TO THE S OF THE WRN UPPER LOW ALONG 33W/34W. AN UPPER HIGH
IS SITUATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS OVER AFRICA NEAR 11N3W. A SWLY
JET IS INDUCED BETWEEN THESE UPPER SYSTEMS PRODUCING/ADVECTING A
SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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