[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N22W 1N28W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 1W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E U.S. INTO THE NW
ATLC COVERING THE GULF N OF 23N WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT AT 27/0300 UTC ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO N OF
TAMPA CONTINUING SW 25N88W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR
18N93W WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKING ALONG THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS. HEAVY SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 91W WITH CLUSTERS OF FURTHER S WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N86W ACROSS S FLORIDA TO NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE. GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATER TODAY. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT
IS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N WITH HIGHER WINDS INLAND OVER THE N
GULF COAST STATES. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE NW GULF WITH COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE NE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD BUT FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE SW TROPICAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALSO REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
USHERING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF
79W TO OVER THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES. THE FRONT IN THE
GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING STALLING
ACROSS THE W PORTION THU/FRI.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC
EXTENDING THE COLD FRONT AT 27/0300 UTC ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA S OF
JACKSONVILLE. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 29N62W PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE A
BROAD AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W
OF 73W TO THE FRONT. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF
24N BETWEEN 38W-52W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N47W ALONG 28N53W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NW OF THE
FRONT NEAR 30N56W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR
24N26W WIT NO SURFACE REFLECTION. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ATLC N OF 20N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY 1 1029 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE
REGION NEAR 34N24W AND BRIDGING THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT.

$$
WALLACE


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