[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N13W 2N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 9W-21W AND
WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 33W-36W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IF UNDER NEAR UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE GULF WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE GULF MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THUS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUES TO BRING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC...
THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS S OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
IN THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 73W. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR
32N77W AND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 30N76W THROUGH 32N76W TO
35N74W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N57W TO 29N65W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
27N78W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S AND E OF
THE FRONT E OF 80W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS
FROM THE FRONT TO N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NE FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N45W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR
36N11W...27N34W...AND 17N45W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N26W. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH S OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N22W AND A JETSTREAM IS ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE
FROM 15N40W 24N24W INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 25N15W.

$$
WALLACE




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