[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N27W 2N40W EQ. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE NRN GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
NOTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE GULF. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE ERN GULF. METSAT
IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.
A WEAK FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE PRESSURE
PATTERN REMAINS WEAK WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REGION WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NRN S AMERICA. EXCEPT FOR THIN BROKEN CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR ABOVE THE TRADE WIND INVERSION. AT
LOW LEVELS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING BRISK EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW. EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 12N W OF 81W.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NRN S AMERICA HAS A RIDGE
EXTENDING NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLC BEYOND 32N50W. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER NW PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA EXTENDS INTO
THE SW N ATLC AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE E OF 73W. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A JET
CORE SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N48W 23N25W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 25N15W. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS UP TO 400 NM SE OF THE
JET WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 600 NM NW OF JET
AXIS W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 7N21W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E ALONG 7N TO AFRICA AND W TO 3N60W.
A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N28W...WITH A RIDGE
FROM 27N50W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

$$
MUNDELL

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