[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 2N17W 2N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 8W-22W AND
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 15W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF A
LINE FROM 1N32W ACROSS THE AXIS TO 4N38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IF UNDER UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE N GULF COAST NEAR
28N88W. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 26N87W WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
THEN WEAKEN AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUES TO BRING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 14N
E OF 75W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC...
THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING NE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDING S TO 25N74W. A 1013 MB
SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 33N74W AND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
29N73W TO BEYOND 32N70W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC STRETCHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N55W TO 28N70W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE FAR N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 115 KT IS N OF A LINE
FROM ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF MELBOURNE ALONG 26N69W TO BEYOND
32N52W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS NE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N45W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE NE ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE W TROPICAL ATLC
THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 33N12W...25N33W...
AND 14N49W. A BROAD BUT WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC
E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 34N23W. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH S OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 9N21W AND A JETSTREAM IS ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 105 KT WITHIN 175/200 NM OF LINE
FROM 15N38W 23N22W INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 24N15W.

$$
WALLACE





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