[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 5N40W EQ52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N EAST OF 21W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 36W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO/GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ROTATING EWD FROM N TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING E ACROSS
E/CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO AND IS SPARKING SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR VERACRUZ
MEXICO BY SUN MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT COLD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE MEXICAN PART OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NW GULF WATERS
OVERNIGHT THEN PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF AND IS PRODUCING E/SE
SURFACE WINDS WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78W
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND THIS
IS RESULTING IN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AND PROBABLY THE AREA WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH UPPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FARTHER TO THE W. STRONG SLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC
ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL INTO
WESTERN CUBA. AS USUAL...POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING BETWEEN THE N LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO
SEEN OVER HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ. SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE W
ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING BETWEEN 68W AND 78W OFF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N COVERING THE W
ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N40W
TO 10N52W. MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ARE ABOUT 50
KT EXTENDING E OF FLORIDA BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH THE FLOW. A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 31N43W TO 27N58W. A SFC
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
28N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS LIE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE TROUGH...BUT OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY LIES WITHIN A SURFACE
RIDGE WITH A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N60W.

EAST ATLANTIC...
BROAD SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN...FEEDING INTO A COMPLEX UPPER LOW
LOCATED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A 1002 MB
OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N21W AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 31N13W CROSSING
JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N28W. THERE ARE TWO WIND
MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE SE PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW. ONE CORE ROTATES BETWEEN THE CANARY AND THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 110 KT WHILE THE SECOND LIES JUST
N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO WESTERN SAHARA WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 90 KT. A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS RUNS ALONG THE SECOND
JET BEGINNING NEAR 10N45W IN THE TROPICS AND EXTENDING TOWARDS
NORTHERN MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING E OF THE OCCLUDED LOW N OF 30N BETWEEN
CENTRAL MOROCCO AND 20W.

$$
GR



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